I hope that there is a corollary to the Old Farmer’s Almanac folklore “when March comes in like a lamb, it will go out like a lion” pertaining to the local real estate market because the year has started off quite lambishly – if that’s a word. So far this year real estate sales volume is precipitously lower than the start of 2022 (down by fully two-thirds) and is just 60% of the level last fall when the pace had already been slowing. It’s worth noting that transactions closing in the first of the year are for properties typically placed under-contract in December, and that the number of properties under-contract has improved in recent weeks, so the sales figures should rebound some in March and April, but will undoubtedly still be substantially lower than a year ago. Consequently, it’s not surprising that homes are taking longer to sell and that the gap between the sale price relative to the original asking price has widened while the median home price in the North Fork slipped to $345,000 from just over $400,000 at the tail end of 2022.
It is clear that the Fed’s move to push interest rates higher has stifled home buying and if not for a couple large ranch sales to start the year, aggregate Delta county sales figures would be in the tank.
Although it doesn’t directly affect sales, the other big real estate news has been the ongoing debate (battle) over the proposed revisions to the Delta County Land Use Code. As a local Realtor I see both positives and negatives in it. For starters, the initial LUC adopted in January of 2021 was the byproduct of what became known locally as “chicken wars” when the county approved egg production facilities in rural residential neighborhoods and was subsequently entangled in extensive litigation. The LUC, and zoning specifically, was adopted with the goal of reducing regulatory uncertainty in the county planning process to make Delta County an easier place for medium size businesses to establish new facilities, and provide employment – where the former “specific development” process was woefully deficient. Nonetheless, the original LUC is fraught with ambiguity and omissions. One could argue that such a document should not have been adopted to begin with, but the need to amend it for clarity and specificity is obvious to those who have to work with it – like Realtors and local surveyors. It is also more lenient in some areas than the prior regulations – allowing siting of commercial dog kennels in zones A-5 through A-35 as a “Use by Right” for example. It doesn’t seem fair that a neighbor should have to accept a kennel being built on the adjoining land without any level of oversight. After all, isn’t that what we should have learned from the chicken wars?
On the other hand, it’s easy to argue that some of the proposed changes are overly burdensome to property owners with no clear benefit to the public interest. Perhaps the most unfortunate aspect is that people seem to have missed the opportunity to have their voices heard during the drafting process which has precipitated the backlash we’re seeing now. It is also abundantly clear that the county’s lack of enforcing prior regulations fostered the public’s perception that there were no regulations, and led to a system of asking for forgiveness rather than permission. It’s clearly time for Delta County to “grow up” and manage land use and development responsibly. The question is where to draw the line in areas of debate that are more gray than black and white.